Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.003454 0.003778 0.004123 0.004520 0.004966 0.005450 0.006020
2025-12-14 0.002873 0.003320 0.003830 0.004460 0.005223 0.006121 0.007271
2025-12-21 0.002510 0.003006 0.003599 0.004366 0.005345 0.006565 0.008224
2025-12-28 0.002268 0.002794 0.003445 0.004321 0.005487 0.007011 0.009194
2026-01-04 0.002110 0.002663 0.003369 0.004353 0.005712 0.007565 0.010352
2026-01-11 0.001948 0.002509 0.003243 0.004296 0.005800 0.007927 0.011265
2026-01-18 0.001818 0.002383 0.003142 0.004258 0.005902 0.008306 0.012237
2026-01-25 0.001700 0.002265 0.003039 0.004204 0.005968 0.008631 0.013150
2026-02-01 0.001617 0.002188 0.002986 0.004215 0.006126 0.009103 0.014352
2026-02-08 0.001525 0.002092 0.002897 0.004163 0.006179 0.009409 0.015303
2026-02-15 0.001436 0.001993 0.002797 0.004085 0.006182 0.009630 0.016124
2026-02-22 0.001381 0.001941 0.002764 0.004106 0.006343 0.010125 0.017505
2026-03-01 0.001348 0.001923 0.002784 0.004220 0.006681 0.010982 0.019737
2026-03-08 0.001277 0.001843 0.002702 0.004164 0.006726 0.011327 0.021030
2026-03-15 0.001205 0.001757 0.002608 0.004078 0.006707 0.011549 0.022100
2026-03-22 0.001149 0.001693 0.002543 0.004037 0.006764 0.011917 0.023537
2026-03-29 0.001112 0.001657 0.002520 0.004065 0.006950 0.012557 0.025683
2026-04-05 0.001061 0.001597 0.002455 0.004013 0.006979 0.012880 0.027151
2026-04-12 0.001018 0.001546 0.002401 0.003979 0.007036 0.013269 0.028844
2026-04-19 0.000976 0.001493 0.002342 0.003929 0.007059 0.013585 0.030407
2026-04-26 0.000946 0.001461 0.002316 0.003939 0.007202 0.014176 0.032797
2026-05-03 0.000909 0.001414 0.002262 0.003891 0.007221 0.014494 0.034511
2026-05-10 0.000870 0.001363 0.002198 0.003819 0.007186 0.014681 0.035894